Theory and Modern Applications
Table 1 Parameters of Model (1)
Parameter | Description | Unit | Estimated mean value | Std | 95% CI | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
β(t) | The transmission probability | Dimensionless | 0.0293 | 0.0016 | [0.0262, 0.0324] | MCMC |
0.0197 | 0.0010 | [0.0177, 0.0217] | ||||
0.0037 | 0.0008 | [0.0021, 0.0053] | ||||
0.0427 | 0.0025 | [0.0378, 0.0476] | ||||
0.0659 | 0.0082 | [0.0498, 0.0820] | ||||
c(t) | The contact rate | 1/Day | 13.8780 | 0.6569 | [12.5905, 15.1655] | MCMC |
5.6702 | 0.2203 | [5.2384, 6.1020] | ||||
9.2718 | 0.5021 | [8.2877, 10.2559] | ||||
10.9740 | 0.5102 | [9.9740, 11.9740] | ||||
11.3180 | 0.5625 | [10.2155, 12.4205] | ||||
α | The incubation rate of exposed individuals | 1/Day | 1/5 | – | – | [23] |
ρ | The fraction of symptomatic infectious individuals | Dimensionless | 0.6 | – | – | [24] |
\(\gamma _{I}\) | The recovery rate of symptomatic infectious individuals | 1/Day | 1/12 | – | – | [25] |
\(\gamma _{H}\) | The recovery rate of hospitalized individuals | 1/Day | 1/10 | – | – | [26] |
\(\gamma _{A}\) | The recovery rate of asymptomatic infectious individuals | 1/Day | 1/9.5 | – | – | [27] |
\(\delta _{I}(t)\) | The rate at which symptomatic infectious individuals are hospitalized | 1/Day | 0.0432 | 0.0131 | [0.0175, 0.0689] | MCMC |
0.0536 | 6.59 × 10−3 | [0.0407, 0.0665] | ||||
0.0379 | 7.16 × 10−3 | [0.0237, 0.0521] | ||||
0.1823 | 8.38 × 10−3 | [0.1659, 0.1987] | ||||
0.0309 | 0.0139 | [0.0037, 0.0581] | ||||
μ(t) | The disease-induced mortality rate | 1/Day | 7.23 × 10−4 | 2.00 × 10−4 | [3.32 × 10−4,1.11 × 10−3] | MCMC |
5.53 × 10−3 | 5.40 × 10−4 | [4.48 × 10−3,6.59 × 10−3] | ||||
3.05 × 10−3 | 2.18 × 10−4 | [2.62 × 10−3,3.47 × 10−3] | ||||
7.66 × 10−4 | 1.50 × 10−4 | [4.71 × 10−4,1.06 × 10−3] | ||||
1.12 × 10−3 | 1.17 × 10−4 | [8.86 × 10−4,1.34 × 10−3] | ||||
θ | The factor for reduced transmission rate in asymptomatic infectious individuals | Dimensionless | 0.5 | – | – | [28] |
ν | The factor for reduced transmission rate among exposed individuals | Dimensionless | 0.5 | – | – | [29] |
q(t) | The proportion of quarantined close contacts | Dimensionless | 0 | – | – | Assume |
0 | – | – | ||||
0.8517 | 0.0628 | [0.7286, 0.9748] | MCMC | |||
0.5178 | 0.0280 | [0.4629, 0.5727] | ||||
0.8231 | 0.0243 | [0.7755, 0.8707] | ||||
λ | The release rate of the quarantined uninfected lose contacts | 1/Day | 1/14 | – | – | [30] |
\(\delta _{q}(t)\) | The rate at which quarantined infected individuals are hospitalized | 1/Day | 0 | – | – | Assume |
0 | – | – | ||||
0.0574 | 0.0071 | [0.0435, 0.0713] | MCMC | |||
0.1738 | 0.0198 | [0.1350, 0.2126] | ||||
0.1186 | 0.0136 | [0.0919, 0.1453] |